‘WE ARE NOT PREPARED’: Scientist Outlines Terrifying Vision Of What Would Happen If America Was Hit By A Nuclear Bomb
Cham Dallas looks at what might happen if 10kt nuclear bomb went off
Most of the 100,000 deaths would happen soon after the detonation
Local health care response capability would be largely eradicated
No real evacuation plans are in place, so survivors will be trapped
He says officials are in denial over the threat of nuclear weapons
As we observe the 70th anniversary of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, it may seem like the threat from nuclear weapons has receded.But it hasn’t; the threat is actually increasing steadily.This is difficult to face for many people, and this denial also means that we are not very well-prepared for nuclear and radiological events.
Professor Cham Dallas at University of Georgia says that many people are in denial over the threat of nuclear weapons, and as a result, the nation is not prepared for the consequences.
What if a nuclear device were detonated in an urban area today?
As in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the majority of deaths would happen soon after the detonation, and the local health care response capability would be largely eradicated.
Models show that such an event in an urban area in particular will not only destroy the existing public health protections but will, most likely, make it extremely difficult to respond, recover and rehabilitate them.
With medical facilities decimated after a detonation, treating the injured will be a tremendous challenge.
Very few medical personnel today have the skills or knowledge to treat the kind and the quantity of injuries a nuclear blast can cause.
Health care workers would have little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims.
Thermal burns would require enormous resources to treat even a single patient, and a large number of patients with these injuries will overwhelm any existing medical system.
There would also be a massive number of laceration injuries from the breakage of virtually all glass in a wide area.
Currently, it has not been worked out how medical systems in affected areas are supposed to cope with the overwhelming numbers of patients from an urban nuclear detonation.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF A 10 KILOTON NUKE HIT THE US?
The majority of deaths – around 100,000, depending on the area – would happen soon after the detonation.
No real evacuation plans are in place, so survivors will remain trapped in area.
Local health care response capability would be largely eradicated.
Damage will make it extremely difficult to respond, recover and rehabilitate.
Health care workers would have little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims.
There would also be a massive number of laceration injuries from the breakage of virtually all glass in a wide area.
Large swaths of territory will be uninhabitable for decades.
Many could die from the effects years later, as the fallout spreads across the country.
A major nuclear event would also leave large swaths of territory uninhabitable for decades, with catastrophic impacts on humans, the economy and the environment.
Decisions to evacuate at-risk populations must be made within hours, but plans for and criteria to evacuate are lacking. And the scale of these evacuations and potential resettlement is tremendous.
Pictured is some of the devastation after the American Atom bomb attack on Hiroshima, Japan, which was dropped on 8th August 1945. As in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the majority of deaths if a bomb were to hit the US would happen soon after the detonation, and the local health care response capability would be eradicated
The current Department of Homeland Security most-anticipated scenario for a nuclear attack in the US is for smaller nuclear weapons – 10 kilotons – about the size of the weapons used to attack Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
And new evidence has altered previous dire predictions in relatively low-yield nuclear blasts such as Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Current US nuclear war response protocols do not rely as much on large-scale evacuations from nearby areas.
For instance, in a hypothetical low-yield (10 kiloton) nuclear bomb over Washington DC, only limited evacuations are planned.Aftermath of atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF A NUCLEAR BOMB HIT WASHINGTON DC?
This image shows the plan of action if a nuclear bomb was detonated. The half-mile radius around the bomb would have a low chance of survival and most buildings – including that of the federal government – would be destroyed. The next half mile would suffer extensive damage, fires and serious injuries
What would happen if a 10 kiloton nuclear explosive went of in downtown Washington, DC at the intersection of 16th and K Streets NW?
The half-mile radius around the bomb would have a low chance of survival and most buildings – including that of the federal government – would be destroyed, according to a 2012 report by Federal Emergency Management Agency.
The next half mile would suffer extensive damage, fires and serious injuries, and those within three miles could suffer minor injuries and slight damage to their homes.
But it was the fallout which the National Capital Region: Key Response Planning Factors for the Aftermath of Nuclear Terrorism study – held last year – suggested could be the most fearful aspect.
It suggests that unlike bombs detonated in the Cold War, which were designed to decimate entire cities, the smaller bomb would leave survivors – and asks, what would they have to deal with?
The 2012 study points out that radioactive fallout would vary depending on the time of year.
In April, Washington’s Bethesda area would suffer the brunt of the dust, while throughout the rest of the year, the city’s poorer regions and Northern Virginia would be exposed.
Within 10 to 20 miles of the explosion, radioactive exposure would cause nausea and vomiting within hours, and death without medical treatment.
But for those near enough to the blast, experiencing more than 800R of radiation, not seeking shelter immediately would cause deaths with or without medical treatment, the study found.
People would not be able to evacuate this area as fallout would arrive within just 10 minutes.
And for those not in this zone, many could die from the effects years later, as the fallout spreads across the country.
The report worryingly concludes: ‘The magnitude of a terrorist attack involving [such an attack] will overwhelm all response resources.’
Despite projections of 100,000 fatalities and about 150,000 casualties, the casualty-producing radiation plume would actually be expected to be confined to a relatively small area.
People upwind would not need to take any action, and most of those downwind, in areas receiving relatively small radiation levels, would need to seek only ‘moderate shelter.’
A Nuclear Global Health Workforce could start to lay out plans for how to rapidly respond to such an attack and project whether and what sort of evacuation plans would be needed.
According to the Radiation Effects Research Foundation (RERF), about 1,900 excess cancer deaths can be attributed to the atomic bombs, with about 200 cases of leukaemia and 1,700 solid cancers.
Today, the risk for a nuclear exchange – and its devastating impact on medicine and public health worldwide – has only escalated.
Nuclear weapons are spreading to more nations, and international relations are increasingly volatile.
The developing technological sophistication among terrorist groups and the growing global availability and distribution of radioactive materials are also especially worrying.
Despite the gloomy prospects of health outcomes of any large scale nuclear event common in the minds of many, it is our mutually shared moral and ethical obligation to respond.
The full version of this article originally appeared in The Conversation. Cham Dallas os Professor and Director, Institute for Disaster Management at University of Georgia.
For those not in this zone, many could die from the effects years later, as the fallout spreads across the country. Pictured is Dr Nagai, medical instructor and x-ray specialist at Nagasaki Hospital, a victim of atomic radiation caused by the nuclear bombing on August 9. August 1945.
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