NEW York could be hit by Hurricane Irma as Texas is still struggling to cope with the devastation left by Harvey.

Most of New Jersey and ALL 5 Boroughs of New York City could be totally destroyed on September 10 at 12:00 Noon, if computer models predicting the strength and path of Hurricane IRMA are correct.  I have the computer model and you can watch it below:

The National Weather Service, and its National Hurricane Center utilize supercomputers to predict where hurricanes will travel based on hundreds-of-thousands of pieces of weather data.  The system they use is called Global Forecast System (GFS).

At 2:00 this afternoon, Friday, September 1, the GFS model spit out its projection of Hurricane IRMA's path over the next 12 days. This model shows the utterly terrifying projected path of Hurricane IRMA coming right up the east coast, and making landfall in NEW YORK HARBOR as a Category 5 Hurricane, with winds in excess of 157 MPH.

I am not a weather expert.  I do not profess to have any idea at all about the accuracy of these computer models.  As a layman, I know the models can turn out to be wrong.  Sometimes even WAAAAAAAAAYYYY wrong.

But if this model is right, then we in New Jersey (where  I live) and folks in New York City, had better start preparing to EVACUATE within the next 7-8 6-7 days.

I do not know of __ANY__ building that can withstand winds "in excess of 157 MPH."

I doubt my condo complex could withstand it.  I cannot even imagine what the skyscrapers in New York City would do under such a wind load.  I suspect some of them -- MANY of them -- might just snap and fall over.

Even buildings which don't simply blow over, would probably see ALL their windows blown out.

"This is the painful story of how I lost my father during Katrina...And it was not the storm's enormous force that killed him... nor the massive floods that followed... and not even the lack of food, water or shelter..."


Can you imagine getting hit by shattered glass driven by 157 MPH wind?  It would cut a person to ribbons instantly!

In all of recorded history, no storm like this has __EVER__ hit New Jersey or New York City. It would be beyond "catastrophic."  Seems to me, there would be NOTHING left!

I emphasize that I know computer "models" are just that: MODELS.  They may be very wrong.

But given the specificity of this particular forecast, I feel it necessary to tell everyone in New Jersey and New York City to absolutely watch this storm every day.  If it appears as you see in the model video below, then EVACUATE at least 100 miles west of NJ.

No one would be able to survive this type of storm.

Here now, the GFS Model which was issued by the National Weather Service at 2:00 PM EDT on Friday, September 1, 2017:


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Hurricane IRMA Prep Mega-Thread 

With the possibility that IRMA will hit land next weekend, I thought it would be a great idea to start a mega thread where we can post information, links, resources and other stuff to help the inevitable surge of people from the rest of Reddit that will inundate our sub as the hurricane approaches. Ideas on the types of info to post:

With the recent alarming events we're seeing a lot of interest in becoming prepared. If you're new here and worried, please first take a deep breath. Things are most likely not immediately dire. The chances of your worst nightmares happening soon are still very, very small. Take a few more deep breaths. Becoming prepared is much more like running a marathon than a sprint.


You don't need to make a Bug Out Bag. Bugging out when you don't have somewhere to go is a very, very bad idea. In almost all situations that I prepare for having to bug out will be a worst-case, final option. If you are going to bug out you have to have a destination in mind. There is nothing wrong with making a Bug Out Bag if thats what you really want. If it is an exercise that gives you peace of mind so you can rationally think about the other preparations you should be making then it is worth every penny.

The rule of 3's is often mentioned in preparedness:

  • You can survive 3 minutes without air.
  • You can survive 3 hours without shelter.
  • You can survive 3 days without water.
  • You can survive 3 weeks without food.
  • You can survive 3 months without security.

There are four top level items that you seriously need to consider when getting started: food, water, shelter and security. There are many sub-items. You're going to want to create lists. Write each of the four items at the top of a blank page. Then start writing down what you think you need to survive in adverse conditions for a specified duration. Over time you will revise your lists and break items out onto their own pages. The exercise in creating the lists is important because we all have different concerns and needs. What is an absolute requirement for me may not even be something you would consider. There are a lot of resources on the internet to help you discover items for your lists.

Don't worry about having lots of food when you first start out. The average American family has less than a weeks worth of food in their home. I highly recommend working towards having two weeks as a first goal. Look at what you already have and use. Determine what stores the best and start buying a little more of it each time you go to the store. Eat the oldest food so you rotate your stocks. I have over three months of food in my house by only using this method. This is one of the easiest things you can do to become more prepared today.

You need two gallons of water per person per day. This is actually higher than is strictly necessary but you will be very unhappy if you ever have to restrict yourself to this amount. I store enough water for everyone in my household for a bit more than two weeks. Get a WaterBOB because it is so inexpensive and easy. Once you have those basic levels you then have to have a means to filter more water for your use. I highly recommend getting at least two Sawyer Squeeze and consider getting something like a Big Berkey. Find a way of collecting rainwater if you can. If you live in a desert, unfortunately you're going to have to find a way to store a lot of water.

Most of us have quite good shelter already available to us. If you live in a cold climate you have to be concerned about winter and freezing temperatures if you don't have a fireplace and wood available. If things ever really became bad I would setup a tent inside of my house and burn candles inside of the tent. For most of the continental United States that would keep the temperature inside of the tent above freezing. If you combine that with a zero degree or better sleeping bag you will survive much better than just about anyone around you. It's much easier to achieve this level of heating independence than finding a way of powering your generator for weeks. A little known fact is that most generators recommend changing their oil every 40 hours of use. Storing fuel to keep a generator working is daunting but the oil requirements are almost always forgotten.

Hopefully none of us will ever need to worry about personal security. Learn how to use and maintain firearms in a safe manner if you can. I highly recommend Appleseed to everyone in the US. This area is often over prepared for most preppers. Try to strive for balance with your food, water and shelter.

In some of the above items I recommended getting more than one if they were not too expensive. If you ever have a desperate need for something to work one of the easiest ways to ensure success is to have backups. A common saying is that 2 is 1 and 1 is none. This might also mean that you could make one that works out of two broken items.

There is one final preparation that you should start working on now: yourself! Get in shape because you're going to have trouble saving yourself if you're out-of-shape to the point that walking a few miles in a few hours would be a serious challenge. Now is the time to start. Most preppers have awesome bug out bags that they couldn't carry for a mile. Don't be that person!

Take some more deep breaths. There are a lot of us here who want to help you become better prepared. You're not alone. Someone has done all of this before. It also isn't as expensive as you may fear. We're here to help — feel free to ask questions!



Posted by NewsPrepper on Sunday, September 3, 2017



  1. Linda Smith 3 September, 2017 at 19:32 Reply

    Thanks for the heads up! As you never know exactly the worst weather on your life will strike! We live in Weatherford, Texas…..not far from Houston! And just think, we actually could still be in Houston! We appreciate the great info and will fix things up, that will not spoil. And get the rest when we know that the hurricane is a certain!!

    Linda Smith

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