Folks in southern Florida are being given a "heads-up" for a storm developing ion the Caribbean currently called "Invest 97 L." Forecasters say conditions over the next 10-12 days are favorable for this system to develop into a MAJOR Hurricane. Historical models for October Hurricanes show south Florida as a likely impact, by New York City may also be in the cross hairs!
The video below lays out the scenarios and we emphasize that it is now very early in the forecast, a lot can change over the next week to ten days. So this is merely a "heads-up" and an advisory for folks in Florida to keep abreast of developments.
Ensemble forecast guidance includes scenarios where Matthew moves north, then northeast remaining well off the East Coast, but also includes tracks into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
The track will depend, in part, on the steering currents in the atmosphere.
- If high pressure aloft is stronger near or over the Eastern U.S., that may steer Matthew closer to some part of the U.S.
- Conversely, if a southward dip in the jet stream is in play over some part of the Eastern U.S., that could help deflect Matthew to the east.
For now, it appears the majority of our ensemble guidance has some form of high pressure aloft over some part of the East next week, implying a land threat for at least part of the U.S. coast.
There is also considerable uncertainty on how fast Matthew moves.
It's also worth noting interaction with land, including mountainous terrain in the Caribbean may also play a role in this system's future.
Learn how planning ahead can help you protect your family, your home and your belongings in a dangerous storm.
Colorado State University tropical scientist, Dr. Phil Klotzbach noted 60 percent of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from September 27 and beyond since 1900 have occurred in Florida. However, while lower probability, there have been landfalls this late in the season as far west as the Texas Gulf Coast. (source)
Hurricane Season: Hurricane Safety Tips and Information
When the weatherman tells you to take cover because a hurricane is on the way, the last thing you want to do is worry about whether you are prepared. A little effort now—before catastrophe strikes—can yield big savings (and peace of mind) in the future.
These 6 tips can help you plan ahead so you never have to face a storm unprepared.
1. Check your insurance coverage to make sure it reflects the current state of your home. Consider adding flood insurance and coverage for additional living expenses in case your home is uninhabitable after a storm.
2. Doing a home inventory can save you time and make filing a claim easier, ensuring you don’t forget anything. Document the contents of your home with a video camera or other home inventory tool. Keep receipts for valuable items and consider separate coverage for these things.
3. Protect your property by installing the following items in your home:
- Hurricane shutters or keep ¾ inch outdoor plywood boards for each window. If using boards, be sure to install anchors and pre-drill holes so you can put them up quickly.
- Head and foot bolts on doors for extra protection.
- Hurricane straps or clips to help hold the roof to the walls of your home.
- A safe room that can withstand high winds and flying debris.
4. Stock your emergency supply kit with basic survival items. You’ll want to have a 2-week supply of water and ready-to-eat, non-perishable food for every family member and pet. If you evacuate, you’ll want a 3-day supply of the same. Other items to add to your supply kit include:
- Manual can opener
- Essential medicines including eyeglasses and contact lenses
- Personal hygiene items such as toilet paper, toothbrush and toothpaste
- Change of clothing
- Paper towels, hand sanitizer, and eating utensils
- First-aid kit
- Battery-powered flashlight and radio with extra batteries
- Blankets, pillows and sleeping bags
- Mosquito repellant and citronella candles
- 2 coolers—one for food, one for ice
- Plastic tarp for roof/window repairs and tools
- Special items for infant, elderly or disabled family members
You want to make sure the whole family is covered, so identify an out-of-state contact that everyone will call if separated and establish a meeting location at least 50 miles inland.
Lastly, gather important papers to take with you:
- Driver’s license or personal ID
- Social security card
- Proof of residence (deed, lease or utility bills)
- Insurance policies (home, auto, flood, wind)
- Birth and marriage certificates
- Stocks, bond and other negotiable certificates
- Wills, deeds, and copies of recent tax returns
- Personal checkbook and any unpaid bills